Assumption

Do you assume? It’s a rhetorical question. Assuming is destructive it tends to make us small minded. It’s quite different to guessing. Guessing is the belief that something is true without enough information. We learn how to guess at a very young age as children. We never test the premise or the original hypothesis. Guessing is essentially a game of chance. Then how does it differ from assumption. 

Let’s look at the dictionary meaning of assumption first -“a thing that is accepted as true or certain to happen, without proof”. The key here is that assumption approaches the result, whereas guessing approaches the original circumstances. 

We assume because of our internal biases; we are conditioned to be impatient and then tend to make inferences without any or adequate information. It feels good because we feel in complete control of the the outcome and believe that we can explain the result no matter what. This behaviour of assumption is based on our cognitive memory. Our cognitive memory is known to be “leaky’ due to biases, distraction, preoccupation etc. Assumption is essentially a wasted effort of mental energy. 

What then is the better way out ? Guessing is a game of chance and Assumption is coloured with bias. There are situations where guessing or assumption might bring you out on top of the situation but then these occasions are few and far in between. What about presumptions ? People tend to wrongly use assumption and presumption in an interchangeable manner. However there is a subtle difference when one presumes. Let’s look at the definition of Presumption - “a belief something is true because it is likely, although not certain”. Presumption looks better as there is some level on analysis involved; it is an informed guess based on some reasonable evidence. Essentially both work of beliefs (biases) one with zero evidence to support the outcome and the other with some evidence but that evidence might have zero influence on the outcome. 

What causes this ? Maybe if one looked at fear as a base emotion that drives bias one could try and understand the situation. Dad explained fear to me as false evidence appearing real. If I apply this definition of fear to the reason why I would assume or presume the answer is quite clear - there is no evidence and as such my presumption could also be absolutely wrong. 

The answer simply is to be mindful of the decisions one makes and to consider all available information and or the lack of it. Informed decisions are the only way to program your mind to chose correctly without guessing, assuming or presuming. (I had a Post some time ago on Informed decision making) 

C